Distributed Platform for Global-Scale Agent-Based Models of Disease Transmission 




The Inter-Region Epidemic Dynamics (IRED) Model efficiently simulates the spread of contagious disease throughout a large multi-patch region like the United States. For any initial geographic distribution of index cases, the model quickly generates an ensemble of stochastic realizations and computes the mean and standard deviation of incidence for every patch. Spatially heterogeneous epidemic severity can thus be assessed, with relevant estimates available for local contingency planning. Specifically, the model can estimate whether an epidemic beginning in one patch will spread to other patches in a statistically reliable fashion; thus helping to determine when mathematically rigorous epidemic forecasts can be made. The model can be used to study the impact of government-imposed travel restrictions or endogenous changes in travel behavior.

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